AGP Executive Report

Whaling Backlash: Iceland’s first fin-whale hunt since 2023 has already logged 17 whales (with estimates closer to 30), sparking political and public pushback and a planned bill that could ban whaling later this year. Biotech & Health Regulation: Pfizer-BioNTech won EU marketing authorization for its XFG-adapted COVID-19 vaccine, with manufacturing started ahead of the respiratory season; separately, Alvotech says the FDA has closed its May Reykjavik facility inspection as VAI. Geothermal Progress: Nevis geothermal is moving toward drilling as the rig is expected to be mobilized soon, with inspection in Iceland before shipment. Aviation & Fleet Moves: Icelandair will lease six A320neos for summer 2028 and accelerate retirement of 757/767; Air China launches Beijing–Copenhagen–Reykjavik three times weekly from 26 Oct 2026. Mining & Capital Markets: Amaroq published an updated Nalunaq mineral resource estimate and prospectus ahead of a London listing move. Shipping & Trade: CLdN’s acquisition of Samskip’s UK–Northwest Continent container services reshuffled intra-North Europe capacity and market ranks. Energy Policy: The EU carbon market ETS reform proposal would slow cuts from 2031, shifting pressure onto other sectors.

Biotech & Regulation: Alvotech says the U.S. FDA has closed its May 2026 inspection of its Reykjavik manufacturing site, classifying it VAI and marking a key step as the company pushes biosimilar BLAs forward. Mining & Markets: Amaroq published an updated mineral resource estimate for its Nalunaq gold project in Greenland (effective 1 Dec 2025), lifting contained gold to 504 koz and paving the way toward a maiden reserve. Shipping & Trade: CLdN’s acquisition of Samskip’s UK–continental Europe container services is reshaping intra-North Europe capacity, with Samskip’s share nearly halved, according to Alphaliner. Energy & Infrastructure: A geothermal project update from Nevis says the drilling rig is expected to be inspected in Iceland and shipped soon, with drilling targeted for this year. Climate & Fisheries: Ireland’s fishing industry faces quota limits as climate change shifts fish north, leaving new species arriving without available EU quotas. EU Policy & Travel Tech: Bilbao’s port is rolling out a new automated entry/exit system to speed border controls for non-EU travellers.

EU Border Tech for Ports: The Port of Bilbao has rolled out a new digital Entry/Exit System (EES) to speed and secure border checks for non-EU travellers, replacing manual passport stamping with automated records and biometrics, with EU co-funding and support from police and Brittany Ferries. Geothermal & Energy Talent: A new EU call offers interest-free EUR 1.5bn in loans to scale EV battery production, and Iceland’s geothermal know-how continues to draw global attention, including a focus on the workforce and industry ecosystem behind the country’s success. Iceland in the Spotlight (Aviation): Talks are underway to revive a non-stop Luxembourg–New York flight, with Icelandair’s old route history cited and US Ambassador Stacey Feinberg calling it a priority. Health Research: A large genetic study identifies 26 genome risk loci for fibromyalgia, strengthening the case for a biological basis and linking risk to brain and nerve-related tissues. Culture & Industry: Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” is boosting interest in ancient Greek culture, with Greece’s prime minister praising the film’s box-office pull and on-location shooting. Local Safety Watch: Iceland’s High Street supermarket in March (Cambridgeshire) suffered a roof collapse; no injuries were reported and structural engineers were awaited.

EU Battery Push: The European Commission is offering interest-free EUR 1.5bn loans to scale EV battery production, with Iceland among eligible EEA countries and projects needing at least 10 GW annual capacity. Geothermal Networking: Registration is open for the 11th African Rift Geothermal Conference (19–24 Oct 2026, Comoros), a key global meeting for geothermal drilling, policy and investment. Iceland Tourism Access: Authorities and tour operators agreed to keep Sólheimajökull open for now, shifting focus to stronger warnings and guided safety after some companies paused glacier walks. Aviation Link to Asia: Air China will launch direct flights between Iceland and China from 26 Oct 2026 (Keflavik–Copenhagen fifth-freedom tag-on), aiming to boost tourism and business travel. Aquaculture Tech Demand: BIO-UV Group reported €20.1m H1 2026 revenue, with 10% Services & After-Sales growth and a major Iceland salmon-producer water treatment contract underway. Reykjavík Security Meeting: Reykjavík is inviting residents and businesses to a public meeting after a burglary surge, with police and industry discussing prevention steps. Local Incident: Police are on scene after the roof of the Iceland supermarket in March, Cambridgeshire collapsed; no injuries reported.

Aquaculture & Water Tech: BIO-UV Group says H1 2026 turnover hit €20.1m, with its Services & After-Sales unit up 10% as export-led aquaculture and maritime retrofit work keep momentum—highlighting a major Iceland salmon-producer water treatment/disinfection contract now under implementation. Tourism & Air Connectivity: Air China will start direct Iceland–China flights on 26 Oct 2026 (Keflavík–Copenhagen tag-on), three times weekly, a first non-stop link expected to boost tourism export revenue. EU Politics: Iceland’s early voting has opened for the 29 Aug referendum on resuming EU accession talks, with the PM arguing Iceland can negotiate from a stronger position amid new security and energy priorities. Visitor Safety: Authorities and tour operators agreed not to close Sólheimajökull for now, but to tighten safety messaging and warnings after guided tours were temporarily paused. Food & Fisheries Business: Vinnslustöðin expands in Portugal by acquiring ESBAL, strengthening the salted/dried and frozen bacalhau value chain. Geothermal Development: A webinar on 31 July spotlights geothermal opportunities in Hungary, with an Iceland-linked speaker from Arctic Green Engineering. Nordic Trade Signals: Vietnam reports strong H1 exports to Nordic markets including Iceland (via its trade office coverage), supported by the EU–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement.

EU Referendum Watch: Iceland’s early voting has opened for the 29 August referendum on whether Reykjavík should restart EU accession talks, with ballots available at district offices, some municipal sites, and Icelandic missions abroad (expected to cover about 15–20% of votes). Tourism Safety: Sólheimajökull won’t be closed for now; instead, authorities and tour operators agreed to keep access but tighten safety messaging and warnings after guided walks were temporarily paused. Aviation Connectivity: Air China will launch direct flights between Iceland and China from 26 October 2026 (Copenhagen–Keflavik, three times weekly), a potential boost for tourism and business travel. Food Industry: Vinnslustöðin’s Portugal unit VSV Portugal has acquired ESBAL, expanding processing of dehydrated and frozen salted fish products in the bacalhau market. Digital Infrastructure: Data centre growth is colliding with energy and sustainability pressure, with executives calling for more sustainable, locally beneficial infrastructure planning. Security in Reykjavík: A public meeting is set after a burglary surge in the capital, bringing residents, businesses and police together on prevention measures.

Iceland Food Industry: Vinnslustöðin’s Portugal arm VSV Portugal has bought dehydrated and frozen salted-fish processor ESBAL, aiming to strengthen its salted bacalhau value chain in Portugal and broaden into prepared and frozen cod products. Iceland Infrastructure & Tourism: New bridges and road upgrades in the southern Westfjords (Djúpifjörður and Gufufjörður) are replacing the last unpaved stretch across Dynjandisheiði, promising safer, more reliable travel—while some locals worry easier access could change remote sites. Iceland Geology: An earthquake swarm started on the Reykjanes Ridge shortly after 5 a.m., with the largest quake at magnitude 3.4, and the Icelandic Met Office notes swarms of this size are common there. Nordic Trade & Supply Chains: Nordic businesses are using Vietnam’s sourcing expo (VIS 2025/2026) to deepen supplier ties beyond trade, including logistics, investment and digital transformation. EU Industrial Policy: France and Germany are pushing a joint position on EU car rules and European content requirements tied to the Industrial Accelerator Act, shaping how automakers qualify for support. Cruise Market Link to Iceland: Viking will add Chinese-language land extensions including Reykjavik, betting on growing Chinese demand for premium, slower-paced trips. Business & Industry Watch: Škoda reported strong first-half 2026 growth, with electric models driving deliveries and profit.

Geothermal & Infrastructure: Iceland’s road upgrades in the southern Westfjords are moving ahead, with new bridges at Djúpifjörður and Gufufjörður and the last gravel stretch across Dynjandisheiði being replaced—promising safer, more reliable travel, tighter links between municipalities, and easier access for visitors, though some locals worry it could change the feel of remote nature sites. Geophysics: An earthquake swarm started shortly after 5 a.m. on the Reykjanes Ridge, about 60 km southwest of Eldey; the largest quake hit magnitude 3.4, and the Icelandic Met Office says swarms like this are common there. Energy Industry: A drilling contract has been signed for IDDP-3, a superhot geothermal well in Iceland—another step for geothermal development. Aviation & Tourism: Icelandair plans to phase out Boeing 757s and 767s earlier than expected, while also expecting a stronger summer despite an ISK 4bn quarterly loss. Local Economy: Iceland’s inflation has risen to a 4-month high, and most home sales are now closing below ISK 80 million as the rental market expands. Shipping/Maritime: Explora Journeys took delivery of its third and largest ship, EXPLORA III, an LNG-capable vessel built by Fincantieri—continuing the ultra-luxury cruise buildout. Food & Consumer: New Galaxy chocolate flavours (Cinnamon Swirl and Millionaire Crumble) are now on shelves in Iceland, alongside Momentum Carnivore Nutrition expanding its Icelandic fish chew line.

Geothermal & Energy: A drilling contract has been signed for IDDP-3, a superhot geothermal well in Iceland—another step for the country’s geothermal push. Transport & Infrastructure: In the Westfjords, new bridges at Djúpifjörður and Gufufjörður are under construction and the last unpaved stretch across Dynjandisheiði is being replaced, aiming for safer, more reliable travel (with some locals worried about changing remote sites). Aviation: Icelandair is set to phase out Boeing 757s and 767s earlier than expected, while also flagging a stronger summer despite a recent ISK 4bn quarterly loss. Seismic Watch: An earthquake swarm began on the Reykjanes Ridge, with the largest quake at magnitude 3.4. Tourism & Events: Kerlingarfjöll Ultra returns with 400 runners across 12, 22 and 60 km, sold out and capped to protect the reserve. Food & Retail: Momentum Carnivore Nutrition expands its Icelandic fish chew line with four new SKUs, built on wild-caught fish from Icelandic waters.

Geothermal & Energy: A drilling contract has been signed for IDDP-3, a superhot geothermal well in Iceland, keeping the country’s geothermal push moving. Transport & Infrastructure: Iceland’s southern Westfjords road upgrades are continuing, with new bridges at Djúpifjörður and Gufufjörður and the last gravel stretch across Dynjandisheiði being replaced—safer travel, but some locals worry about losing remoteness. Aviation: Icelandair plans to phase out Boeing 757s and 767s earlier than expected, a fleet shift that could reshape capacity and costs. Housing & Economy: Iceland house price growth is slowing as the rental market expands, while inflation has risen to a four-month high. Education Policy: From 2027–2028, students outside the EEA will pay full tuition fees at Iceland’s public universities, with exemptions for the Faroe Islands, Greenland and Switzerland. Earth & Weather: An earthquake swarm has begun on the Reykjanes Ridge, with the largest quake at magnitude 3.4. Tourism & Events: The Kerlingarfjöll Ultra sells out again with 400 runners across 12, 22 and 60 km.

Geothermal Push: Reykjavik Energy has signed with Iceland Drilling to start work on the IDDP-3 geothermal exploration well later this year at Nesjavellir, advancing Iceland’s deep drilling research plan. Aviation & Jobs: Icelandair plans to phase out Boeing 757s and 767s earlier than expected, while also signaling a stronger summer despite an ISK 4bn quarterly loss. Housing Pressure: Iceland house price growth is slowing as the rental market expands, with more homes closing below ISK 80 million. Education Policy: Iceland will require full tuition fees for most students from outside the EEA starting in 2027–2028, aligning with Nordic practice. Food & Retail: Momentum Carnivore Nutrition expands its Icelandic fish chew range with four new SKUs, built from wild-caught fish processed the same day. Cruise & Shipbuilding: Explora Journeys takes delivery of LNG-capable Explora III, with Iceland and Greenland routes flagged for the maiden season. EU Sanctions: The EU adopted its 21st Russia sanctions package, tightening controls affecting finance, energy, crypto and the military-industrial sector.

Geothermal Drilling Deal: Reykjavik Energy has signed with Iceland Drilling to start the IDDP-3 exploration well later this year at Nesjavellir, pushing forward Iceland’s deep geothermal research and exploitation plans. Higher Education Policy: Iceland will require full tuition fees for most non-EEA students from the 2027–2028 academic year, with universities to set fee levels ahead of December 2026 admissions. Inflation Watch: Iceland’s consumer price inflation edged up to 5.3% year-on-year in July, while producer prices jumped to a four-year high of 19.4% in June, with marine products and metal industry costs accelerating. Cruise & Shipbuilding: Explora Journeys took delivery of LNG-capable Explora III from Fincantieri in Genoa, adding new dining concepts and setting up an inaugural season that includes Iceland and Greenland. Food Industry Buzz: Galaxy launched two new chocolate bar flavours in Iceland—Cinnamon Swirl and Millionaire Crumble—driving local retail attention. Corporate/Finance: Syntholene Energy upsized a private placement to $2.0m, while STONE WALL CAPITAL published an updated regulatory and client onboarding framework.

Geothermal Drilling: Reykjavik Energy has signed with Iceland Drilling to start the IDDP-3 deep geothermal exploration well later this year at Nesjavellir, a major step in Orkuveitan’s deep exploitation plan. Tourism & Transport: Icelandair posted a Q2 loss of ISK 4bn but expects a stronger Q3 on solid bookings; fuel costs remain the key pressure point. Housing Market: Iceland’s home sales are increasingly closing below ISK 80m, with about 60% of transactions in that band, while the rental share of adults keeps rising. Inflation Watch: Statistics Iceland says July CPI rose to 5.3% year-on-year, the highest in four months, with transport and housing/utility costs contributing. Education Policy: Parliament approved legislation requiring full tuition fees for non-EEA students at Iceland’s public universities from 2027–2028, with exemptions for the Faroe Islands, Greenland and Switzerland. Whaling Debate: Hvalur resumed commercial whaling after a two-year pause, despite IUCN-linked animal-rights criticism and calls to cut quotas. Energy Industry: EU carmakers report rising registrations in the first half of 2026, with hybrids leading and EV growth continuing—relevant for Iceland’s EV and charging ecosystem.

Iceland Higher Ed Fees: Parliament has approved a bill ending state funding for most non-EEA students at Iceland’s public universities, with full tuition fees set to start for the 2027–2028 academic year (amounts still to be set; Faroe Islands, Greenland and Switzerland exempt). Housing Market Pressure: New Housing and Construction Authority data says about 60% of Iceland home sales closed below ISK 80m, while only just over 4% topped ISK 170m; renting is rising, especially in Reykjavík. Tourism & Safety: South Iceland police and volunteers helped two tourists who got lost in dense fog on Kristínartindar peaks; the rescue ran from about 1 a.m. to shortly after 4 a.m. Aviation Outlook: Icelandair reported a Q2 loss of ISK 4bn but expects a stronger Q3 on solid bookings, despite unresolved wage talks and higher fuel costs. Energy & Industry Risk: Hvalur hf resumed whaling after a two-year pause, drawing protests and renewed debate over quotas and IUCN-listed species. EU Mobility for EVs: EU car registrations rose 5.7% in H1 2026, with hybrids leading and battery-electric at 20.7%, while Chinese brands gain ground. Travel Fraud Warning: A US tourist reported being steered to a fraudulent phone number after trying to change an Icelandair booking via a link. Renewables Claim: A Solartopia update says Iceland generates 100% equivalent electricity from renewables (as presented by Stanford’s Mark Jacobson).

Housing & Construction: Iceland’s Housing and Construction Authority reports a sharp jump in young renters: 45% of 18–24-year-olds rent now, up from 34% a year earlier, as house-price growth slows and buying stays tough. Energy & Industry: Denmark is drafting measures to curb datacentres blamed for surging industrial electricity demand, after an Audit Office critique of grid expansion plans; the emergency proposal would deprioritise most datacentres for scarce capacity. Aviation & Tourism: Alaska Air Group posted a Q2 net loss of $76m despite revenue up 10%, citing a fuel spike; it also launched new routes including Reykjavík. Travel Safety: A River Forest woman says she lost nearly $4k in a fake airline support scam tied to an Icelandair change attempt. EU Policy: The European Commission cleared the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger with conditions, focusing on competition in film distribution and audiovisual services. M&A/Services: Private equity-backed Orwins expands in the UK by acquiring Newcastle firm Clarke Mairs. AI Infrastructure: Nordic Investment Bank signed a €22m, four-year loan to Helsinki AI infrastructure firm Verda.

Housing Market Shift: Nearly half of Icelanders aged 18–24 are now renting (45%, up from 34% a year earlier), as slower house-price growth and tougher buying conditions push more young adults out of family homes. AI & Research: Princeton’s Adji Bousso Dieng is tackling “mode collapse” in generative AI, aiming for more reliable “investigative intelligence” for scientific pattern-finding. Energy & Industry: GE Aerospace says it has flown a hybrid-electric Saab 340 above 30,000 feet and completed the first hybrid-electric Atlantic crossing, a step toward megawatt-class propulsion. Mining & Finance: Credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS challenges Greenland’s “mineral treasure chest” narrative, saying proven, economically viable deposits are scarce and strategic value is more about military and trade routes. AI Infrastructure Funding: Nordic Investment Bank backs Helsinki AI infrastructure firm Verda with a €22m, four-year InvestEU-backed loan. Local Business/Construction: Architizer’s A+Awards highlight Iceland-led sustainable adaptive reuse, including a renovation project in Þjórsárdalur Valley.